L’inizio del 2010 ha portato in dote un numero consistente di previsioni per il futuro che ci attende da qui a dieci anni. Delle molte lette, quella che forse più colpisce è frutto dell’ingegno di David Cushman:

We’re in for a big change: Where the noughties were a decade of discovery, the teens will be a decade of realisation. And not discovery of new tech. The future isn’t digital; it is self-organised.

The noughties were when we discovered our self-organising power – little by little. And new models started to emerge. But we are embarking on 10 years in which people all over the globe will realise the self-organising power now at their fingertips – and start turning that realisation into the world they want; niche by niche.

Nel decennio appena trascorso, abilitati progressivamente dalle nuove tecnologie e da Internet, abbiamo scoperto di poterci auto-organizzare. Nei dieci anni che verranno useremo questa capacità per realizzare cambiamenti radicali nella società. E lo faremo un passo alla volta, una nicchia dopo l’altra. Disintermediazione sarà la parola d’ordine:

Which is bad news for those who would organise and those who would mediate. It’s not just traditional media, advertising, marketing etc that’s going to be replaced. Even the ‘new media’ stuff that relies on central organisation is threatened. Traditional search (for example) is already being replaced for many by collaborative filtering.

Poi Cushman si spinge oltre definendo il cambiamento che ci aspetta entro il 2020, descrivendo l’evoluzione verso una società quasi utopistica:

Ubiquitous, always-on computing will arrive as the enabler. Digital social tools which allow us to express meta dats beyond silos (including language) will emerge to enable all of us to find all of us when we need each other most. Those tools and platforms which fulfil those roles most successfully will be those with the best chance of commercial success.

And by 2020 we will have the tech and the will to make communities of purpose the primary form of organisation: adhoc self-forming groups brought together to collaborate – driven by common purpose.

Decisi a fare da soli e liberi da un centro che dirige, saremo infine indipendenti da tutto, persino dalla politica come la intendiamo oggi:

One example? Mass party politics will decline. New democracy will formulate in open systems – with collaboration delivering a better fit, niche by niche […] In a decade of realisation we move beyond being passive consumers in all aspects of our lives – government policy included.

Un’immagine del futuro visionaria e affascinante, che si conclude quando Cushman sintetizza al meglio il cambio di paradigma al quale andiamo incontro:

By 2020 a person’s worth will be valued by what they share, not what they keep. That may be the most significant shift of all.

Risorse

– Faster Future Blog: “2020 vision”

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